Exponential Change PDF Print E-mail
Written by Jim Kiggens   
Wednesday, 10 June 2009

The difference between linear growth and exponential growth is astonishing. Exponential growth stars out being in a period of slow growth and then quickly changes over to rapid growth of exponential expansion. In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is an increase in the rate of technological (and sometimes social and cultural) progress throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future. While many have suggested accelerating change, its popularity in modern times is closely associated with the ideas and writings of Raymond Kurzweil, especially in relation to his theories about technological singularity.

An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century—it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The 'returns,' such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the Singularity—technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.

Links:

Wikipedia:  Exponential Growth

Wikipedia:  Technological Singularity

Wikipedia:  Moore's Law

 

Last Updated ( Wednesday, 10 June 2009 )
 
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